It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to address. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
